2024年11月1日 星期五

There are two groups of swing voters to focus on in these final days.

 There are two groups of swing voters to focus on in these final days. The first group is undecided voters — with a particular focus on independents, disaffected Republicans who do not like Mr. Trump but are reluctant to support a Democrat, young non-college-educated Black men and Hispanics and white non-college-educated women.

在最後幾天裡,有兩組搖擺選民值得關注。第一類是猶豫不決的選民——特別關注獨立人士、不喜歡川普但不願支持民主黨的心懷不滿的共和黨人、年輕的未受過大學教育的黑人男性和西班牙裔以及未受過大學教育的白人女性。


但還有第二組搖擺選民可能對獲勝者產生更大的影響。這些搖擺選民知道他們會支持誰,但不確定他們是否會投票。儘管我們在 2020 年的選舉中獲得了 100 多年來最高的投票率,但他們仍然是一個相當大的群體。即使興趣上升,該國仍有三分之一的選民(代表超過 8,000 萬人)在 2020 年沒有投票。


But there’s a second set of swing voters that may have an even greater impact on the winner. These swing voters know whom they would support but are not sure if they are going to vote. They remain a sizable group despite the fact that we had the highest turnout in over 100 years in the 2020 election. Even with this uptick in interest, one-third of the country’s voters — representing over 80 million people — did not turn out to vote in 2020.

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