2022年3月11日 星期五

stem, dramatic ripple effect, far-reaching, to stockpile. Delayed employment among graduates has ‘far-reaching’ implications for China



The ripple effect poses a risk to the property market and could further intensify the nation’s demographic crisis, economists warn.



SCMP.COM
Delayed employment among graduates has ‘far-reaching’ implications for China
China’s top economic planner vows more favourable employment policies and help for fresh university grads, while economists warn of ripple effects that could worsen th...






"There is absolutely no need for anybody to stockpile or anything like that", minister Oliver Dowden said.

Asian shares stepped back from three-week highs on Monday as investors weighed the near-term hit on global growth from a fast-spreading coronavirus outbreak in China, although expectations of further policy stimulus helped stem losses.

Germany Stockpiles Natural Gas as Dispute With Russia Heats Up


The Washington Post leads with word that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will announce a new plan today to help stem the tide of foreclosures across the country.



The ripple effects have been far-reaching. The trade imbalance between the United States and China -- a source of political tension for years -- is beginning to right itself as Chinese exports fall and U.S. exports rise. Global trade routes are being transformed, suggesting a possible return to a less integrated world economy.


ripple effect
UK 
 /ˈrɪp.əl ɪˌfekt/ US 
 
/ˈrɪp.əl ɪˌfekt/

situation in which one event produces effects which spread and produce further effects:
The bank crash has had a ripple effect on the whole community.
far-reaching 
adjective
Something far-reaching has a great influence on many people or things:
These new laws will have far-reaching benefits for all working mothers.

stem
(STOP)
verb [T] -mm-
1 to stop something unwanted from spreading or increasing:
These measures are designed to stem the rise of violent crime.
We must take action to stem the tide of resignations.

2 to stop the flow of a liquid such as blood:
She tied a handkerchief around the wound to stem the flow of blood.stem from sth phrasal verb
to originate or develop as the result of something:
Her problems stem from her difficult childhood.
Their disagreement stemmed from a misunderstanding.




國正面臨著暫時的電力短缺﹐如果這個問題不能很快得到解決﹐則可能會給全球能源市場帶來連鎖效應。造成中國大範圍電力短缺的原因很多﹐但核心問題是定價和分配體制已經難以跟上中國快速增長的電力需求。

評論: a ripple effec 並不是 "連鎖效應"

"分配體制 "或應為 "配電系統"


stockpile 
noun [C]
a large amount of food, goods or weapons which are kept ready for future use:
They have a stockpile of weapons and ammunition that will last several months.

stockpile 
verb [T]
to store a large supply of something for future use:
The rebels have been stockpiling weapons.

China Scrambles To Stem Power Shortages

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2008年01月24日10:52
China is facing temporary power shortages that could have a ripple effect on global energy markets if not resolved soon. The widespread shortages stem from a number of factors, but at their core is a pricing and distribution system that is having trouble keeping up with the country's booming demand for electricity.



The National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic-policy planner, announced yesterday the formation of a task force to handle the mounting problem and urged power producers and coal distributors to try to ease the shortages. China gets the majority of its electricity from coal-fired power plants.

Regulators said yesterday that 13 provinces and major regions, including the industrial-and-export hub of Guangdong in the south, will experience a total shortfall of about 70 gigawatts of electricity-generating capacity -- roughly one-tenth of China's total and nearly the entire capacity of the U.K. -- and are facing electricity rationing. Coal stockpiles have fallen to less than half typical levels, analysts said.

China has been racing to feed its surging demand for power, last year adding 100 gigawatts of generating capacity, a pace of roughly one new power station each week. But it still needs hundreds more, according to projections.

Analysts and industry insiders say the electricity shortages will ease once cold winter temperatures rise and thermostats are lowered. But the summer will bring another jump in demand when China's emerging middle class cranks up air conditioners. Unless the broader, systemic problems are resolved, that could strain China's power grid again.

A sustained power crunch in China may affect global energy markets. In 2004, China's appetite for oil rose nearly 16%, startling global markets and helping to fuel a huge rise in international oil prices. The surge in demand was caused in large part by widespread electrical-power shortages, which forced many factories to use diesel generators to keep operating.

With the world struggling with the widening impact of a U.S. credit crunch and oil prices backing off from their highs of $100 a barrel, a big jump in China's oil demand could push oil prices back to uncomfortable levels.

It is unclear how bad this year's power shortages will be. But this time there is an additional worry: China is becoming a big coal importer. The world's biggest consumer and producer of coal, China relies on coal for 78% of its electricity. After years of mining enough coal to have a surplus, China now needs to import it -- especially for consumers in the south, which are far away from the coal-producing centers in the north. Economic growth has outpaced China's transportation infrastructure: It lacks trains, ports or power-transmission lines to evenly distribute power to where it is needed most.

That could drive up coal prices from exporters such as Australia, Indonesia and South Africa and could affect energy costs -- and possibly exacerbate inflationary pressure -- among customers as far away as Europe.

'The initial impact of this could be closer to home, but it could ripple out,' says Jonathan Anderson, a senior economist for UBS in Hong Kong.

The worst snows in 15 years in Central China have toppled major transmission lines, and a drought has lowered electricity output at China's thousands of dams, which account for 16% of China's electricity.

Analysts largely blame the power shortages on price controls. The government has begun to overhaul the state-owned power grid and supply. Starting in 2006, coal prices were liberalized, allowing them to rise 10% each year after. But at the same time, electricity tariffs have been kept flat or lowered by government officials worried about inflation and social unrest if prices rise too high.

That has squeezed the profit margins of power producers and distributors. In some cases, utilities have decided to shut down rather than buy expensive coal and operate at a loss. China's state-owned oil refiners used a similar tactic last fall to force the government to raise fuel prices when a diesel shortage threatened the economy.

'There's plenty of coal and plenty of installed capacity,' said Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University, who argues that the problem isn't supply, but pricing.

The argument between regulators and producers reveals another crack in China's system. Although the government still owns most of the power plants and transmission companies, these companies are acting increasingly independently and trying to fatten the bottom line even when colliding with Beijing's policies. The two dominant electricity-grid operators, State Grid Corp. and smaller China Southern Power Grid Co., which controls several provinces in the south, want to list on overseas stock markets.

Shai Oster / David Winning


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