Capex - go big and go home. "take the rap" or "bear the rap," which means facing the consequences, as opposed to "beat the rap," which means to escape blame or punishment.

The Venezuelan’s best chances in court have less to do with the underlying facts of his case and more to do with its politics https://econ.st/4q5meQY

AI Overview

The phrase "bear one's rap" is an idiomatic expression meaning to 

accept the blame or punishment for one's actions or for a situation, even if it is unfair. It is a variant of the more common phrase, "take the rap". 

Key aspects of the meaning:

• "Rap" means blame or punishment: In this context, "rap" is US slang for responsibility for the adverse consequences of an action or a criminal charge/prison sentence. A related slang term is "bum rap," which means unfair blame or punishment.
• "Bear" means to assume responsibility: The verb "bear" means to take on or accept the responsibility, burden, or consequences of something.
• Context: The full expressions are typically "take the rap" or "bear the rap," which means facing the consequences, as opposed to "beat the rap," which means to escape blame or punishment. 

 Capex - go big and go home

Aletheia Capital近期釋出一份報告，揭示了台積電未來三年可能採取的極端擴張路徑。報告揭露台積電為了應對 AI 需求的指數級爆發，將打破過去幾年的資本紀律，啟動一場規模史無前例的「資本暴力」。

分析師預測，台積電的資本支出將從 2025 年的 420 億美元起跑，2026 年跳升至 450-500 億美元，並在 2027 年進一步衝上 600-650 億美元的天量。單年 2.1 兆台幣的投資規模，不僅是護城河，更是對競爭對手發出的清場訊號。

這筆天文數字般的資金，將主要流向台灣南部的兩個關鍵戰略據點。首先，報告明確指出台積電計畫在南科 Fab 14 基地（台南善化）旁，新建一座名為「Fab 25」的全新園區。這座新廠將專攻埃米世代的 A14（1.4奈米）製程，直接鎖定 2027 年後的頂級 AI 晶片需求。

其次，現有的南科 Fab 18 基地也將迎來大規模擴建，報告預估其規模將擴大 50%，以容納 N3 與 A16（1.6奈米）的龐大產能。這兩項計畫若如期執行，台積電先進製程產能將在 2027 年暴增 40-50%，徹底甩開追兵。

換言之，未來兩年近四兆台幣的投資有很大部份都放在南部（桃園已經哭暈）。

為了支撐前端製程的瘋狂擴張，報告更揭露了一項極具破壞性的後端策略：台積電可能關閉台灣舊有的 8 吋晶圓廠（200mm fabs）。這並非單純的淘汰舊產能，而是為了將這些廠房原地改建為 CoWoS、SoIC 等先進封裝產線。在 AI 晶片極度依賴異質整合的當下，封裝產能的戰略價值已超越成熟製程。這種「殺舊換新」的手段，顯示出台積電為了解決 AI 產能瓶頸，已準備好採取最激進的資源調度。

這場豪賭的本錢，來自台積電強悍的財務體質。儘管折舊壓力將隨之而來，但報告預測台積電的營收將在未來三年內翻倍甚至三倍（股價怎麼算請自己按計算機，本人不算財務模型很久了），配合高達 60% 的營業現金流利潤率，足以支撐這場每年 600 億美元的軍備競賽。

對台積電而言，Fab 25 的新建與 8 吋廠的轉型，不只是產能的加法，而是定義 AI 時代硬體規格的絕對權力。

#台積電,#資本支出,#Fab25,#南科,#A14製程,#CoWoS,#先進封裝,#A16

Reel

AI Overview

"Go big or go home" means 

to commit fully to something with maximum effort and ambition, taking bold risks for significant rewards, or else not bothering to try at all, as half-measures aren't worthwhile. It's a call to be all-in, whether in sports, business, or personal goals, implying you should aim for the best possible outcome or stay out of the game. 

Key Meanings & Applications:

• Maximum Effort: Give something 110%; don't hold back.
• Boldness & Ambition: Aim for huge achievements and take big, bold steps.
• All-or-Nothing Mindset: If you can't commit fully, it's better to not attempt it.
• High Stakes: Focus on big wins rather than small, incremental progress. 

Examples:

• In business: Launching a massive, expensive product instead of a small update.
• In studying: Immersing yourself in the language (podcasts, books, videos) rather than just a few apps.
• In life: Applying to your dream university despite long odds. 

Origin:

• The exact origin is debated, but it's linked to American sports culture (trick skiing, basketball) and potentially a 1990s motorcycle parts slogan. 

 Capital Expenditure (CAPEX，資本支出/營運成本)，一般指企業注入的資金或固定資產、無形資產、遞延資產（Deferred Charges）的投入，除了物業和廠